Courses › Trading Psychology Blueprint: Rewire Your Mind for Success
Trading Probability Experiment
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What this lesson covers
This lesson uses a simple experiment to show how differently people treat gains and losses, and why that matters at the screen. Offered a certain seven hundred dollars or a seventy five percent chance of a thousand, most people take the certain amount even though the second option is worth more on average. There is no wrong answer, but the pattern is revealing: people avoid risk when facing a gain, and take on more risk when facing a loss. That single asymmetry explains a great deal of trader behaviour, including cutting winners early and holding losers far too long. The lesson works through the experiment and its counterpart, then draws out what it means for the way you manage a position that is already open.
