Courses › Trading Psychology Blueprint: Rewire Your Mind for Success
Hot Hand Bias – When a Winning Streak Makes You Reckless
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What this lesson covers
Hot hand bias is the belief that a run of wins means you are in form and the next trade is more likely to work. It is the same reasoning gamblers use when they feel luck is with them, and it is equally unfounded. This lesson explains why a sequence of independent outcomes carries no information about the next one, and why the feeling of being on a run is so convincing regardless. The consequence in trading is direct and expensive: position sizes creep up during a good week, rules loosen, and the trade that finally goes wrong is larger than any of the ones that went right. The lesson covers how to recognise the feeling when it arrives and why fixed risk is the protection against it.